AND HE Missed IT! Why it's Worth Overspending on a Kicker:
- Zack Anderson
- Sep 19, 2018
- 6 min read
In your everyday life, there are certain things that you expect to work. When you go out to your car in the morning, you expect it to start. When you get on a plane, you expect to land safely and on time.
Why is that?
Perhaps, it is because that is what happens most of the time. We are creatures of habit and typically, that is what happens. Our cars typically start, and when we fly, we typically land safely.
Maybe that is why we get so upset when kickers miss field goals. When you watch an NFL game, place kickers make most of their kicks. With that being the general trend, that has become our expectation. We believe that because they normally make their kicks, that should be the outcome. When they fail, maybe that is why we get so upset.
But maybe that expectation isn’t justified. Perhaps, just like everything else in life, you get what you pay for.
Let me explain....
If I told you my $900 car wouldn’t start; would you be surprised? Probably not.
Why?
Well, because I didn’t put effective resources into that asset. I went cheap on a car and for that reason, I cannot expect a favorable outcome.
That logic seems so sound, but when you relate it to NFL rosters, people cannot seem to understand. As I watched the Minnesota Vikings play against the Green Bay Packers, I began to wonder. What position should NFL teams pay the most money for?
Well, here are my answers:
Of course, the quarterback should be the highest paid player on the team. He is the most valuable player on the field and without a good one, you rarely can have success.
But who should we pay next?
You should pay players to protect and disrupt that valuable asset. In other words, teams should invest in pass rushers and offensive lineman. These players are vital to your team’s success. You want to protect your most valuable asset, while trying to disrupt your opponents.
Next, I would go heavy on the defensive side of the ball. I would want a good defense because that is what matters when you go into the playoffs. If you cannot stop anyone on offense, it puts pressure on the rest of your team, and you are unlikely to have great success.
Here is where I think we will have some disagreement.
Now, I understand it is important to have a few offensive weapons. However, I find that you don’t need a lot of them to be successful. In fact, you can be successful with marginal offensive skilled players. This being something that we see all the time. We see smarter teams going cheap at this position. There are a lot of players who are skilled enough and they do not cost a lot of money. So instead of paying for more depth at these positions, why not pay a kicker?
Wait. What? The Kicker?
Listen, I know it sounds crazy, but it really shouldn’t. We see year after year teams struggle to figure out this position. Last year, the Los Angles Chargers lost two games because they couldn’t convert two field goals. This causing them to miss the playoffs.
In 2016, we saw the Minnesota Vikings get eliminated because they missed a field goal.
These are just two examples, but it happens every year to multiple teams. And the crazy part is, no one seems to do anything about it.
But does it matter? Are games typically that close?
I did some digging because I wanted to make sure I wasn’t being a prisoner of the moment. According to a few sports books, the average margin of victory in the NFL is three points. In other words, the games that I mentioned were not rare games, but among the most common. In the NFL, games are typically close, making the kicker more valuable than I originally anticipated.
But does more money mean better performance?
In the case of my car analogy, there is a clear difference between a $900 car and a brand-new car. In that instance, the reason I would pay more money for the brand-new car is for reliability and connivence. I am expecting that because I spent more money, it shouldn’t have as many issues.
This is no different in the NFL and the amount you spend on your kicker. In 2017, 5 kickers in the Top 10 in payroll, were also among the Top 10 in field goal percentage. In fact, if you go back and check the last few years, it seems to be a common trend.
So, in other words, you truly get what you pay for.
Smart Teams overpay: AKA: New England
This may sound like breaking news or a new concept to some of you, but smart front offices have understood this concept for years. In fact, if you look at some of the most successful teams over the past two decades, they have generally had stability at this position.
A perfect example being the current reigning dynasty in the NFL; the New England Patriots.
When you go back to those early New England Patriot teams, you often think of Tom Brady and talented defensive superstars. Maybe you remember Deion Branch or Ty Law being valuable players on those teams. Although those players were important to the success, kicker Adam Vinatieri was just as vital. With game winning kicks against the St. Louis Rams and other opponents, he provided consistency and reliability when the games were on the line.
Even since the Patriots have moved on from Vinatieri, they still value consistency with their place kicker. Since moving on, they have made current kicker Stephen Gostkowski among the highest in the league at his position. This showing you how much they value this position.
Why More Teams Should overpay:
I think what the Patriots and even what the Green Bay Packers do is really smart. If you overpay for a kicker, sure you give up cap space. You might not be able to sign that extra depth player in the secondary. You also might not be able to afford that running back your fanbase wants.
But, it is more than worth it and smart teams understand this. The smart teams have bought into this model in which I have presented.
This model being that if you want to be successful, you should value what is truly important to winning football games.
Do you ever see the Patriots overpay a running back or wide out?
Nope! Why?
Because they see those positions as spots where there are a lot of talented players among the league. Since there is a lot of depth, this is a spot on their roster they choose to go cheap on. With that in mind, there aren’t a lot of good kickers in the league, and the Patriots realize that. So, with the importance of the position and scarceness of quality players at it, they are more than willing to overpay.
Why won’t teams do it:
With all of that being said, why won’t teams overpay? I think it has to do with the lack of confidence teams have in other aspects of their team. In many spots, general managers are trying to find their franchise quarterback. When you don’t have a quarterback, it really does not make sense to try and develop something like a kicker.
On top of that, we have seen the backlash that NFL General Managers have gotten when they have tried to overvalue this position and it hasn’t worked out. Just recently, we saw the Tampa Bay Buccaneers drafted a kicker in the 2nd round of the NFL draft.
At the time, people thought they were crazy and that they had wasted a pic.
But did they?
We have seen through years of covering and following the draft that over half of the first-round pics are out of the league in just three years. The other half of the league is undrafted players who weren’t even deemed qualified enough to be on a NFL roster.
So, if you have less than a 50% chance of retaining players in which you drafted, why not draft kickers who are deemed worthy? It seems like it is worth the risk and hell, maybe it will work it. Maybe you will find a franchise level kicker that eliminates a problem that a lot of NFL rosters have right now.
Perhaps, I am overthinking this.
Maybe, I am overreacting to a week in the NFL where a lot of teams missed field goals. Or, maybe just maybe, I am on to something. I’ll let you be the judge but, just remember this. A bad kicker is a lot like an old rundown car. They work great when the weather is nice but tend to fall apart when you need them the most.
-Zack
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