The Wisconsin Badgers have been very lucky over the years. But this year, they won’t have to be.
- Zack Anderson
- Sep 14, 2018
- 6 min read
We have all met this guy. You know, the person who seems to always be at the right place, at the right time. He is the guy who catches a flyball in the upper deck of a baseball game. Or just happens to be sitting at the right seat at the blackjack table and continues to win hands; when everyone else is losing.
Or better yet, he just happens to be born in Green Bay and doesn’t know what it is like to have Nathan Peterman as a starting quarterback.
The Point being, you know who I am talking about.
In sports, this guy tends to pop up from time to time. Sometimes in the form of players, but more commonly, we see with it teams and organizations. Whether we want to admit it or not, The Wisconsin Badgers have been that guy in college football.
Now, before you click off this article, and send me an email about me hating Wisconsin, hear me out.
First, I do think Wisconsin has a really good program. In fact, to say the Badgers have only had success due to luck, would be misleading.
BUT!
To say that they have not benefited from lucky breaks, would be dishonest and delusional.
Let me explain…. Here are all the breaks Wisconsin has had over the last 5 years:
1. Weak Big 10 West
When the Big 10 realigned the conference in 2014, I am not really sure what they were thinking. Just based on the history of each of the teams, the organization of the divisions did not make sense.
Perhaps it was done based on location, but here are the current divisions.
Big Ten: East:
Ohio State, Penn State, Michigan State, Michigan, Rutgers Maryland, Indiana
Big 10 West:
Wisconsin, Northwestern, Iowa, Illinois, Minnesota, Nebraska, Purdue
If you just look at the cross-division play, the aligning does not look that bad. Since 2017, the Big 10 East is 37-33 against the West. However, that is not a way to judge a division’s true strength. Here is a better way to do it.
Let’s say that you and I were going to draft teams for a win’s pool. The goal being, to have the most wins at the end of each year. I could make an argument that you would take three teams from the East before even taking one team in the West. Hell, only one team in the Top. 5 would be from the West.
This making my point.
The divisions are not even, and Wisconsin has benefited from this. The West has been a laughing stock for years and this makes the Badgers an automatic bid for the Big 10 Championship every year.
Zack why does it matter? They lose the Big 10 Championship everywhere year anyways.
Well, it matters for a couple of reasons.
For starters, it provides great brand recognition for the school even if they lose 59-0. It allows them to be on an extra nationally televised game and perhaps, could help them land an extra recruit or two.
Also, it provides an advantage from a scheduling standpoint. You tend to play teams from your division more often. So, if you play in the weaker division, you will naturally have easier games, and thus, a better record.
2. Programs getting into Trouble:
In that same time frame from when the Conference was realigned, Wisconsin benefited from program suspensions and restrictions. Here are a few of those programs:
1. Penn State:
The Badgers benefited from a weakened Penn State in a multitude of ways.
First, with the Sandusky scandal, Penn State was given sanctions that did not allow their program to be competitive. This included scholarship limitations which only allowed Penn State to have 65 scholarships (as opposed to the normal amount of 85.)
Now, I cannot prove this with full confidence but, here is my theory on how Wisconsin benefited.
Let’s say that I am at a singles bar with 10 guys, and 10 girls (I know I don’t go out but just pretend). If 3 of the guys left the party, would my odds of getting a date go up or down? Well of course, they would go up, because 30% of the competition went away.
It is the same idea with Penn State and Wisconsin.
If a program is giving out 20 less scholarships a year, and you happened to play in a certain region of the country, wouldn’t your odds of landing recruits go up? Well of course, because you are recognized brand in that area, and people generally, do not like to leave home if they don’t have to.
With a 24% decrease in scholarships, an advantage went to Wisconsin and the rest of the Big 10.
A lucky break if you ask me.
2. USC Trojans
In 2015, the Badgers went 10-3 and ended up playing the Trojans in the Holiday Bowl. When I mention this game, you probably do not remember a whole lot. Perhaps all you can recall is that the Badgers won the game. They beat USC, sounds great right?
Well, not exactly. You are misrembering what actually happened.
First, USC was not a dominant team that year. The Trojans finished the regular season 8-5 including a loss against Stanford in the Pac-12 Championship game.
Why weren’t they talented you might ask?
This can be attributed to having less scholarship athletes than the Badgers. USC was under similar sanctions as Penn State with regards to scholarship limitations. At the start of the 2015 season, this marked the end of the restriction, and USC was allowed 85 scholarship players for the first time since 2011.With a lack of depth, this cannot be viewed as typical dominant USC team.
How could this be a break? It was 1 game Zack...
Well, I view this Holiday Bowl win for the Badgers as a lucky break because it was it was utilized as a recruiting tool. It is easier to grab four and five-star recruits, when you are able to say you beat a blue-blood like USC.
Hence, break number three for the Badgers if you are counting at home.
I could keep going with examples on how Wisconsin has been lucky. I could tell you how Wisconsin does not play a hard schedule. I could tell that based on win/loss record from the years 2014-2017, they have played on average the 63rd hardest schedule in College Football.
But, I am not going to do that because this year is different. Wisconsin does not need any luck this year. In fact, I see a scenario where Wisconsin can actually make the College Football Playoff.
Here is what would need to happen:
First, Wisconsin has to take care of business. Meaning, they either have to go undefeated or have a really close, but respectable loss.
I think this is very probable considering who the Badgers have on their schedule.
Wisconsin has some games that could cause some challenges, but I am optimistic about their chances.
Why you might ask?
They have a lot of good players and it begins with Heisman hopeful running back Jonathan Taylor. The sophomore running back from New Jersey, rushed for almost two-thousand yards last year and is already off to a great start. With a talented offensive line, the Badgers could give some teams trouble with their old-school, run it down your throat approach.
On top of that, the Badgers are very talented on the defensive side of the ball. Despite losing ten defensive starters from last year’s team, the badgers have looked good on defense and this can be attributed to great coaching.
As far as the other teams in the Big 10, they might need some help. In particular, I do not like the Badgers chances against Ohio State. However, there is a chance the Badgers could avoid them all together. If Penn State or Michigan can somehow beat the Buckeyes, the Badgers wouldn’t see them in the Big 10 Championship game.
Even if they had to play Ohio State, I think that they could hold their ground. Wisconsin is easily the 2nd best time in the Big 10. If they can get some high-level play from quarterback Alex Hornibrook, they could shock some people.
Regardless of whether or not they make the College Football Playoff, there is a lot to be excited about this year with Wisconsin. With a possible Heisman candidate, a top 10 defense, and perhaps one of the best coaching staffs in College Football, what is not to like? The Badgers have been lucky, but with the amount of talent and depth on their roster, I don’t see luck as something they will need this year.
-Zack
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